Iran Tensions Hit Oil and Rates

Trump says the Iran ceasefire is over; oil prices rose, stocks fell, and markets began pricing Strait of Hormuz risk into inflation and Federal Reserve rate expectations.

1. Frame 1Trump says the Iran ceasefire is over; oil prices move Strait of Hormuz risk into U.S. inflation forecasts.
2. Frame 2The chain starts with tanker attacks, U.S. strikes, and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Frame 3Brent rose 6.3% to $78.80; WTI, the U.S. benchmark, climbed 6.4% to $75.
4. Frame 4Higher crude raises gasoline and transportation costs, while the Dow fell 623 points in the market selloff.
5. Frame 5Inflation risk can trigger a higher-rate path at the Federal Reserve, tightening conditions across the U.S. economy.
6. Frame 6Watch the revoked oil-sales waiver, Strait traffic, and benchmarks as the price shock moves through markets.